USDA pares US soybean, corn yield estimates
CHICAGO, Nov 8 (Reuters) -The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Friday lowered its estimates for the average yields of the U.S. 2024/25 soybean and corn crops by more than analysts expected, lifting Chicago Board of Trade soybean Sv1 and corn Cv1 futures.
Highlights:
* USDA November supply/demand report summary nL1N3MF12B
* USDA lowers US soy, corn harvest estimates nL1N3MF0YN
* Trade estimates for corn, soybean crops nL1N3MB16Z
* Trade estimates for U.S. grain stocks nL1N3MB16W
* Trade estimates world crop end-stocks nL1N3MB16Y
COMMENTS:
* RICH NELSON, CHIEF STRATEGIST FOR ALLENDALE INC:
"The decline on soybean yield, this would be the largest percentage drop from the prior month in quite some time. A 2.6% correction, in fact, would be the largest correction in over 25 years on a percentage basis. We had a very dry finish. If you go back to 1980, the August and September rainfall was literally the lowest on record. Dropping moisture right ahead of harvest certainly did tighten up some of the (soybean) supply, near-term."
* DON ROOSE, PRESIDENT OF U.S. COMMODITIES:
"When you look at it overall, late August, September moisture levels were just too low. Overall, we still have adequate supplies, but I think we're just balancing back here."
* CRAIG TURNER, COMMODITY BROKER AT STONEX GROUP:
"The (soybean) yield is coming down and we expected that. But that yield drop is a lot bigger than we thought it would be ... There's no point for soybeans to go below $10 (per bushel). And if we have any weather issues in the South American crop, we're going to see soybeans in a $10 to $12 market."
"We're now adequately supplied for corn, rather than burdensomely supplied. What this report tells me is that a normal trading range for corn, with a run-of-the-mill weather market, we've got a $4 to $5 (per bushel) corn market on our hands for this spring."
* ANGIE SETZER, PARTNER AT CONSUS AG:
"The trade is surprised. (USDA's yield estimates) came in less than what traders were expecting. It's supporting the prices at the very least ... I thought they could have made a move with demand and seen a bump to corn exports, which would have made the carry-out lower. There's a lot of time to see future adjustments lower."
* JACK SCOVILLE, VICE PRESIDENT OF PRICE GROUP:
"It's bullish. The market was looking for unchanged yield estimates, and that's not what they got on beans and corn, and that's responsible for the (futures') move higher. They (USDA) cut back on demand for beans and they left it alone for corn, and that added to corn bullishness."
* SUSAN STROUD, FOUNDING ANALYST, NO BULL AG:
"This market is having a poor reaction to what otherwise would be considered a bullish report."
Reporting by Chicago commodities desk
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