Sluggish demand, supply glut worries to weigh on oil in 2025
2024 Brent forecast cut for sixth month in a row
Global oil demand seen up 1 mln-1.5 mln bpd in 2025
For table of crude price forecasts, click OILPOLL
By Anjana Anil and Brijesh Patel
Oct 31 (Reuters) -Concerns around demand from top consumer China, prospects of higher supply from key producers and easing geopolitical risks are likely to weigh on oil prices this year and next, a Reuters poll indicated on Thursday.
The poll of 40 analysts and economists conducted in the past two weeks projected Brent crude LCOc1 would average $80.55 per barrel this year and $76.61 in 2025, down from estimates of $81.52 and $76.94 projected in September.
U.S. crude CLc1 is expected to average $76.73 a barrel in 2024 and $72.73 next year, compared with projections of $77.64 and $73.03 last month.
"Geopolitical risks will continue to support gyrating markets, but overall the risk of an actual disruption remains very limited, hence the geopolitical related rallies have increasingly become a selling opportunity," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.
Brent crude has dropped more than 9% in the last three weeks on easing fears that Israel might attack Iran's nuclear facilities or oil infrastructure. The global benchmark has averaged around $81 a barrel so far this year.
Most of the analysts noted that despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, ample spare production capacity among key OPEC producers has mitigated any upward price movements.
OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, is scheduled to raise output by 180,000 barrels per day in December. The group will meet on Dec. 1.
Reuters has reported that OPEC+ could delay the planned oil production increase in December by a month or more.
"We think that OPEC+ could delay the increase in supply until end of March/beginning of April of 2025, given that demand will drop in Q1 2025 from Q4 2024 because of seasonal factors," said John Paisie, president of Stratas Advisors.
Global oil demand was expected to increase by about 0.8 million-1.2 million barrels per day in 2024 and by 1 million-1.5 million bpd in 2025, the poll showed.
Earlier this month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration slashed its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast, citing weakening economic activity in China. OPEC also lowered its demand growth forecast for 2024 and next year.
"Major factors that will impact the (demand) outlook are a continued industrial and manufacturing slowdown in China, a worsening of the recent geopolitical flareup and a global shift towards renewables in the energy mix," Sehul Bhatt, director of research at CRISIL, said.
OPEC world oil demand forecasts for 2024 and 2025 https://tmsnrt.rs/3CeWeyq
Average Brent price forecast https://tmsnrt.rs/3AtgoUU
Reporting by Anjana Anil and Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese; Editing by Jan Harvey
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