China's October imports of soybean, coal surge y/y
Adds comments
Nov 7 (Reuters) -China's imports of coal, iron ore and soybean climbed in October from a year earlier, while those of crude oil slumped, customs data showed on Thursday.
China's outbound shipments grew at the fastest pace in more than two years in October as manufacturers rushed inventory to major export markets in anticipation of further tariffs from the U.S. and the European Union, with the threat of a broader trade war looming.
With Donald Trump being elected as the next U.S. president, his pre-election pledge to impose tariffs on Chinese imports in excess of 60% is likely to spur a shift in stocks to warehouses in China's No.1 export market.
Imports fell 2.3%, compared with expectations for a drop of 1.5%, turning negative for the first time in four months.
KEY POINTS:
* Soybean: October imports at 8.09 mmt, up 56% y/y
* Crude oil: October imports at 44.7 mmt, down 9% y/y
* Unwrought copper: Oct. imports at 506,000 mt, up 1.1% y/y
* Coal: October imports at 46.25 mmt, up 29% y/y
* Iron ore: October imports at 103.84 mmt, up 4.5% y/y
* Rare earths: October exports at 4,753 mt, up 10.78% y/y
Preliminary table of commodity trade data TRADE/CN
Below are comments from analysts on the commodities data.
COMMENT ON SOYBEAN
ROSA WANG, ANALYST, JCI
The October soybean imports were 600,000 higher than our initial estimate. We expect imports to remain high in the coming months as Chinese buyers rush to secure shipments before Trump 2.0 takes office in January. A record level of imports for 2024 is possible. Regarding the potential impact of a Trump administration, there could be a soybean shortage in China if high tariffs are imposed on Chinese goods and China responds with retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products. However, any shortage is likely to be moderate.
COMMENT ON CRUDE OIL
MUYU XU, SENIOR CRUDE OIL ANALYST, KPLER
The lower imports in October reflect thin refining margins and sluggish fuel demand at Chinese refineries, which do not have the motivation to replenish inventory even as outright oil prices hovered at relatively low levels.
COMMENTS ON IRON ORE
ZHUO GUIQIU, ANALYST, JINRUI FUTURES
Demand for ore climbed last month as production of hot metal ramped up, driven by drastically improved steel margins that contributed to relatively high imports.
CAI YONGZHENG, NANJING-BASED DIRECTOR, JIANGSU FUSHI DATA RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Iron ore imports in October are a bit higher than our expectations. Relatively low prices and an appreciating yuan might act as tailwinds.
LINKS: For details, see the official Customs website (www.customs.gov.cn)
BACKGROUND:
China is the world's biggest crude oil importer and top buyer of coal, copper, iron ore and soybeans.
Reporting by Asia Commodities and Energy team; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips
免责声明: XM Group仅提供在线交易平台的执行服务和访问权限，并允许个人查看和/或使用网站或网站所提供的内容，但无意进行任何更改或扩展，也不会更改或扩展其服务和访问权限。所有访问和使用权限，将受下列条款与条例约束：(i) 条款与条例；(ii) 风险提示；以及(iii) 完整免责声明。请注意，网站所提供的所有讯息，仅限一般资讯用途。此外，XM所有在线交易平台的内容并不构成，也不能被用于任何未经授权的金融市场交易邀约和/或邀请。金融市场交易对于您的投资资本含有重大风险。
所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。
本网站上由XM和第三方供应商所提供的所有内容，包括意见、新闻、研究、分析、价格、其他资讯和第三方网站链接，皆保持不变，并作为一般市场评论所提供，而非投资性建议。所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为适用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。请确保您已阅读并完全理解，XM非独立投资研究提示和风险提示相关资讯，更多详情请点击 这里。
