US LNG export gains at risk if Trump wins election and boosts tariffs, analysts say
A return of US-China trade tensions could undercut gas exports
Harris campaign has no comment on Biden LNG permitting pause
Re-exporting LNG to avoid tariffs could disrupt other sales
By Curtis Williams
HOUSTON, Oct 30 (Reuters) - U.S. exporters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) could face new hurdles if Republican Donald Trump wins the presidential election because of a proposed 60% tariff on imports from China, despite the former president's pledge to speed new energy permits, say analysts.
The U.S. became the world's largest exporter of the super-chilled gas last year, generating tens of billions of dollars in annual trade. Exports will average 12.1 billion cubic feet per day this year, almost double their level four years ago, according to U.S. government estimates.
Even greater potential gains have been stalled because President Joe Biden's Energy Department paused approvals for new LNG export permits to non-free trade agreement countries. A federal judge in July blocked the administration's ability to continue the pause in approvals of applications and in September, DOE authorized New Fortress Energy Inc NFE.O to export up to 1.4 million tonnes a year of LNG.
The Democratic presidential campaign of Vice President Kamala Harris has not said whether she would attempt tocontinue the pause.
Trump has promised to speed up energy permitting, but this promise could be undercut by his plan to apply 60% tariffs onimports from China, said Erica Downs, Senior Research Scholar at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy. She warned that Chinamight reciprocate by avoiding new contracts and re-exporting U.S. cargoes to other nations.
RE-EXPORTS TO AVOID TARIFFS
"The destination flexibility of U.S. LNG means that Chinese companies can on-sell it to other buyers to avoid paying the tariff," Downs told Reuters.
Last year,China accounted for about4% of total U.S. LNG sales. Its companies have long-term contracts to take almost 28 million metric tons per annum (MTPA) of LNG in the future, seven times what it bought last year.
"Trump will stimulate investment, but at the cost of heightened trade risks, especially with China," added Alex Munton, consultancy Rapidan Energy's director of global gas.
The largest U.S. LNG exporter, Cheniere Energy LNG.N, in June said it agreed to sell a subsidiary of China's ENN Natural Gas 1.8 MTPA of the superchilled gas, with deliveries to commence in mid-2026. The contract allows ENN to ship the fuel anywhere in the world.
Natural gas demand in Louisiana and Texas, the two states with the most LNG export facilities, expanded by 116% between 2016 and 2022, driven largely by increased demand for feedgas for LNG exports, according to EIA data.
SCARE TACTIC
TheTrump campaign has rejected claims that his proposed tariffs could hurt LNG exports, calling it a scare tactic by opponents. Tariffs and deregulation will increase U.S. jobs and production by encouraging companies to drill and produce more oil and gas, campaign spokespeople said.
"Kamala Harris is trying to fearmonger and lie about his plan even though she and Joe Biden kept the Trump era tariffs in place," said campaign spokesperson Anna Kelly.
Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administrationshows Trump's 2018 sanctions on China caused a 12-month freeze of Chinese imports of U.S. LNG that lasted until March 2019.
If China wanted to retaliate over tariffs, U.S. LNG and oil would be high on its list of imports since they rank among the most valuable U.S. exports to China, said Columbia's Downs.
"There are other LNG exporters that undoubtedly would be very happy to sell more LNG to China," Downs told Reuters.
The Harris presidential campaign did not respond to a request for comment. U.S. environmental groups that oppose new LNG plants view Harris as a possible ally.
"Harris has been a proven climate champion throughout her career," said Mahyar Sorour, Sierra Club's Director of Beyond Fossil Fuels Policy.
Three U.S. companies whose projects face potential permitting delays - Energy Transfer ET.N, Venture Global LNG, and Commonwealth LNG - declined to comment.
Top exporter Cheniere Energy, which has new projects on the drawing board, said it has worked with both Democratic and Republican administration and is confident it will do so after the Nov. 5 election.
U.S. LNG exports rise between 2020-2024 https://reut.rs/4f2BwQU
Reporting by Curtis Williams in Houston; Editing by David Gregorio
免责声明: XM Group仅提供在线交易平台的执行服务和访问权限,并允许个人查看和/或使用网站或网站所提供的内容,但无意进行任何更改或扩展,也不会更改或扩展其服务和访问权限。所有访问和使用权限,将受下列条款与条例约束:(i) 条款与条例;(ii) 风险提示;以及(iii) 完整免责声明。请注意,网站所提供的所有讯息,仅限一般资讯用途。此外,XM所有在线交易平台的内容并不构成,也不能被用于任何未经授权的金融市场交易邀约和/或邀请。金融市场交易对于您的投资资本含有重大风险。
所有在线交易平台所发布的资料,仅适用于教育/资讯类用途,不包含也不应被视为用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议,或是交易价格纪录,或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。
本网站上由XM和第三方供应商所提供的所有内容,包括意见、新闻、研究、分析、价格、其他资讯和第三方网站链接,皆保持不变,并作为一般市场评论所提供,而非投资性建议。所有在线交易平台所发布的资料,仅适用于教育/资讯类用途,不包含也不应被视为适用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议,或是交易价格纪录,或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。请确保您已阅读并完全理解,XM非独立投资研究提示和风险提示相关资讯,更多详情请点击 这里。