AUD/USD bulls may be looking past the US election
Nov 5 (Reuters) -AUD/USD struck a 7-session high Tuesday as investors appeared less influenced by U.S. election risks and more focused on possible Fed and RBA policy path divergences as well as commodities.
The RBA held rates steady at its latest meeting and cautioned that policy would need to remain restrictive and that underlying inflation remains too high.
RBA's trimmed mean CPI (q/q) came in at +0.8% versus +0.7% estimates while RBA's weighted quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year median CPIs came in above estimates to suggest inflation may struggle to reach the RBA's target.
Australian yields AU3YT=RR rallied and the September 2025 bank bill YBAU5 hit its lowest since July.
Short-term rates markets indicate the RBA may not cut until May 2025 or July 2025 0#RBAWATCH.
Meanwhile, investors expect the Fed to cut 25bps this week and keep easing until either Q3 or Q4 2025.
Diverging policy paths may underpin AUD/USD and commodities may do the same.
Iron-ore DCIOc2 has been trending upward since September while copper HGv1 has been doing the same since August.
AUD/USD technicals are flashing some bullish signals.
Daily and monthly RSIs imply upward momentum is in place and AUD/USD's rally above the 10- and 200-day moving averages add to bullish signs.
AUD/USD longs may now be targeting September's monthly high.
For more click on FXBUZ
audusd https://tmsnrt.rs/3UCL78U
rbawatch https://tmsnrt.rs/4en0EAF
(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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