EUR/USD upside may be limited on growth, political uncertainty
Nov 7 (Reuters) -EUR/USD rallied Thursday but remained within Wednesday's daily range and longs may not see much upside as economic growth out of Germany deteriorates and the collapse of that country's government introduces added uncertainty.
German industrial output fell more than polls estimated in September, which likely increased the probability of recession in the euro area.
Germany's fragile ruling coalition fell apart Wednesday which could lead to a confidence vote in January and elections in March.
Those factors combined with potential trade tensions after President-elect Trump takes office could lead markets to expect the ECB to cut rates deeper than previously anticipated.
Meanwhile expectations for Fed cuts have been reduced. Implied yields for the fed funds futures curve have risen sharply since last month with the Fed's terminal rate now near 3.75% from 3.25%.
The diverging policy paths should keep or increase rate differentials in the dollar's favor.
The trend of wider German-U.S. spreads US2DE2=RR and wider Fed SRAM26 and ECB FEIZ5 terminal rate spreads may persist, which should limit EUR/USD rallies and also keep the broader trend downward.
Unless euro area growth improves and uncertainty fades to help erode dollar's rate advantage over the euro, the downside risks for EUR/USD are likely to remain.
For more click on FXBUZ
(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
</body></html>
免责声明: XM Group仅提供在线交易平台的执行服务和访问权限，并允许个人查看和/或使用网站或网站所提供的内容，但无意进行任何更改或扩展，也不会更改或扩展其服务和访问权限。所有访问和使用权限，将受下列条款与条例约束：(i) 条款与条例；(ii) 风险提示；以及(iii) 完整免责声明。请注意，网站所提供的所有讯息，仅限一般资讯用途。此外，XM所有在线交易平台的内容并不构成，也不能被用于任何未经授权的金融市场交易邀约和/或邀请。金融市场交易对于您的投资资本含有重大风险。
所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。
本网站上由XM和第三方供应商所提供的所有内容，包括意见、新闻、研究、分析、价格、其他资讯和第三方网站链接，皆保持不变，并作为一般市场评论所提供，而非投资性建议。所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为适用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。请确保您已阅读并完全理解，XM非独立投资研究提示和风险提示相关资讯，更多详情请点击 这里。
