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Forint falls further after disappointing third-quarter GDP data



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>UPDATE 1-CEE MARKETS-Forint falls further after disappointing third-quarter GDP data</title></head><body>

Recasts with forint falling over half a percent

By Krisztina Than

BUDAPEST, Oct 30 (Reuters) -The forint eased more than half a percent versus the euro onWednesday, underperforming central European currencies, after much weaker-than-expected GDP data showed the Hungarian economy dipped into technical recessionin the third quarter.

Hungary's economy is still recovering from an inflation shock which drove price growth to more than 25% in the first quarter of 2023, eating into Hungarians' spending power. Close trade links with Germany are also hitting the economies of Hungary, the CzechRepublic and Slovakia, where German carmakers have big car plants.

Despite the weak growth outlook, Hungary's central bank kept interest rates on hold earlier this month as the weakening forint cut its room for manoeuvre in policy. Its base rate is still the highest in the European Union at 6.5%.

"Today's growth print is incrementally dovish for Hungarian rate prospects, although we expect the NBH to remain on hold in the very near term as the Forint has continued to weaken against the Euro," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note.

The Hungarian GDP data showed a contraction of 0.8% year-on-year in the third quarter, defying expectations for growth. GDP contracted by 0.7% from the previous quarter.

The forintEURHUF=, which has been the region's laggard with a 6% fall so far this year, weakened 0.55%to hit a new 22-month low of 407.50 per euro by 0952 GMT.

"The next potential resistance could be around 408.50," brokerage Equilor said in a note.

Other currencies in the region were mostly steady with investors on the sidelines as uncertainty about the U.S. presidential election and a firmer dollar remained in focus.

The dollar has been supported by expectations that former president DonaldTrump could win in Nov. 5 elections. His tax and tariff policies are seen as inflationary and more likely to keep U.S. rates high.

The zloty EURPLN= was broadly flatat 4.336 per euro. The Czech crown traded a shade weaker at 25.372.


CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1152 CET






CURRENCIES







Latest

Previous

Daily

Change




trade

close

change

in 2024

EURCZK=

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.3720

25.3400

-0.13%

-2.64%

EURHUF=

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

407.5000

405.2500

-0.55%

-5.97%

EURPLN=

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.3360

4.3390

+0.07%

+0.20%

EURRON=

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9747

4.9745

-0.00%

-0.01%

EURRSD=

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

116.9500

117.0500

+0.09%

+0.25%


Note: daily change

calculated from



1800 CET












Latest

Previous

Daily

Change





close

change

in 2024

.PX

Prague

.PX

1637.84

1643.3400

-0.33%

+15.83%

.BUX

Budapest

.BUX

74055.15

74225.68

-0.23%

+22.16%

.WIG20

Warsaw

.WIG20

2266.06

2284.76

-0.82%

-3.28%

.BETI

Bucharest

.BETI

17508.18

17504.24

+0.02%

+13.90%













Spread

Daily






vs Bund

change in


Czech Republic





spread

CZ2YT=RR

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.4220

-0.0280

+123bps

-5bps

CZ5YT=RR

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.7880

-0.0250

+163bps

-3bps

CZ10YT=RR

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.0670

-0.0430

+176bps

-2bps


Poland






PL2YT=RR

2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.8300

-0.0170

+264bps

-4bps

PL5YT=RR

5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.4690

-0.0610

+331bps

-7bps

PL10YT=RR

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.8410

-0.0660

+353bps

-5bps










FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS








3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank


Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

3.82

3.55

3.40

4.08


Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

6.46

6.27

6.14

6.45


Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.71

5.28

4.88

5.85


Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices






**************************************************************







Editing by Christina Fincher and Sharon Singleton

For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets:
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Eastern Europe spot FX EEFX= Middle East spot FX MEFX=
Asia spot FX ASIAFX= Latin America spot FX LATAMFX=

Other news and reports
World central bank news CEN Economic Data Guide ECONGUIDE
Official rates GLOBAL/INT Emerging Diary EMRG/DIARY
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