FX steadies after US election volatility
WARSAW, Nov 8 (Reuters) -Emerging Europe's currencies levelled out on Friday, holding on to most of Thursday's gains, against the backdrop of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut and the dollar pulling back slightly after a surge following Donald Trump's presidential election victory.
The U.S. dollar, which had eased in the previous session as traders closed out profitable Trump-trade bets, was on track to end a volatile week with a slight gain, as markets weighed the impact of Trump's return to the White House and what that means for the U.S. economy and its interest rate outlook.
On Thursday, the Fed cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point as its policymakers began taking stock of what could become a more complex economic landscape when President-elect Donald Trump takes office next year.
In Poland, projections published on Friday by the central bank showed inflation peaking in the first quarter of 2025, assuming Poland's government removes a cap on household energy prices in 2025, before returning to the central bank's target range in early 2026.
On Thursday, National Bank of Poland (NBP) governor Adam Glapinski reiterated that rate-setters, who extended their pause in November, could start discussing policy easing in March if inflation peaks and the next NBP projection shows its steady return towards target.
By 0945 GMT, the Polish zloty EURPLN= slipped 0.1% to the euro, trading at 4.3210, after cutting its losses since late October ahead of the U.S. presidential election during trading on Thursday.
"Yesterday's post-election correction was probably a one-off and the market will need new impulses to deepen Thursday's movements. As a result, we expect EURPLN to trade in the range of 4.31-4.33," Poland's state-owned development bank BGK wrote in a note.
In Hungary the forint EURHUF= eased 0.2% against the euro to 405.50, calming down after wild swings earlier this week following Trump's election victory.
It is unlikely to strengthen beyond the key 400 per euro level, and is seen trading in a range of 403-407 versus the euro over the coming week, a Budapest-based trader said, adding that the Fed’s rate cut was priced in already in Thursday’s session.
"If the ECB also cuts rates that can also help us, and I do not expect the Hungarian central bank to cut interest rates at its next meeting, which could also be a forint-positive."
The trader said any U.S. tariffs on European imports would be negative for the forint, but announcements on any such moves were unlikely before Trump's inauguration in January.
Romania's central bank is widely expected to hold its benchmark interest rate at 6.50% on Friday at its last meeting of the year and ahead of parliamentary and presidential elections.
The National Bank of Romania, which targets inflation at 1.5%-3.5%, will release new forecasts for 2024 and 2025 on Monday.
Policymakers have said they expected inflation to be higher than previously forecast and two board members have urged caution last month, driven by a pending fiscal consolidation plan.
The Romanian leu EURRON= held steady against the euro at 4.9759, within the narrow corridor it has remained in since early September.
Elsewhere, the Czech crown EURCZK= firmed 0.2% to 25.2350 per euro, extending gains after returning to late-October levels a day earlier.
The Czech National Bank (CNB) extended its year-long monetary easing campaign on Thursday as expected with a 25-basis-point interest rate cut, but cautioned about further steps due to inflation pressures.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1045 CET | |||
CURRENCIES | |||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | ||
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.2350 | 25.2735 | +0.15% | -2.11% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 405.5000 | 404.7500 | -0.18% | -5.50% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.3210 | 4.3152 | -0.14% | +0.54% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9759 | 4.9763 | +0.01% | -0.03% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9300 | 116.9800 | +0.04% | +0.27% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | |||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
close | change | in 2024 | |||
Prague | .PX | 1667.25 | 1672.7300 | -0.33% | +17.91% |
Budapest | .BUX | 76577.37 | 76478.67 | +0.13% | +26.32% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2310.88 | 2310.43 | +0.02% | -1.37% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 17386.64 | 17347.27 | +0.23% | +13.11% |
Spread | Daily | ||||
vs Bund | change in | ||||
Czech Republic | spread | ||||
2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.3430 | -0.0520 | +116bps | -2bps |
5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.6580 | -0.0810 | +145bps | -3bps |
10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.9380 | -0.0590 | +156bps | +0bps |
Poland | |||||
2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.9080 | -0.1330 | +272bps | -11bps |
5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.3290 | -0.0190 | +312bps | +3bps |
10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.7150 | 0.0370 | +333bps | +10bps |
FORWARD | |||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | ||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.75 | 3.53 | 3.35 | 4.03 |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.35 | 6.07 | 5.85 | 6.54 |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.69 | 5.18 | 4.79 | 5.83 |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | ||||
************************************************************** |
Reporting by Karol Badohal in Warsaw, Luiza Ilie in Bucharest and Gergely Szakacs in Budapest. Editing by Jane Merriman
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