Swedish crown is a better bet as Riksbank goes for growth
Key developments technically, and a central bank setting monetary policy for growth, have put the Swedish crown in a better light.
A widely expected 50-basis point rate cut from the Riksbank on Thursday gave every indication that rates will come lower still. A modest knee-jerk reaction in EUR/SEK saw the cross lift to 11.6600, but the rate cut was heavily priced into the market and the cross quickly resumed its fall.
The Riksbank is now looking to bolster Swedish economic growth. The central bank has not taken its eye off inflation or the levels of the crown but is looking more comfortable within its easing cycle. The bank could cut rates again in December and January with a further cut in the first half of 2025 taking the key rate to 2.0%.
EUR/SEK may have turned a corner as a bearish reversal signal takes hold. A bearish engulfing candlestick Wednesday was a strong signal. Early Thursday price action has added confirmation but a weak close is needed to complete the bearish signal.
Fibonacci retracement levels, taken off the 11.2450-11.7105 Sept. 27-Nov. 5 rally, provide bear targets at 11.6006, 1.5327 and 11.4778.
For more click on FXBUZ
EUR/SEK daily candle chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/3YzDem1
(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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